Yes, I think that begins to narrow it down. I don't know that you're
going to find a big performance difference, since distributions will
generally ship the upstream project with only minimal modifications to
integrate it.
(That said, CDH does let you enable native acceleration for some
mathematical operations in Spark MLlib. I don't think other distros
enable this and ship the right libraries. It's possible that could
matter to your use case.)
I'd look at how recent the Spark distribution is. Cloudera ships Spark
1.5 in CDH 5.5; MapR is on 1.4 and Hortonworks on 1.3, with a beta
preview of 1.5 at the moment in both cases. We're already integrating
the nearly-released Spark 1.6 too.
Finally, if you're considering paying for support, I think it bears
evaluating how much each vendor invests in Spark. No investment means
no expertise and no real ability to fix your problems. At Cloudera, we
have a full-time team on Spark, including 4 committers (including me).
I think you'll find other vendors virtually non-existent in the Spark
community, but, go see for yourself.